March 17, 2014

Unexpectedly, Vermont's Plan for a State Single-Payer System Is Also Circling the Drain
— Ace

Vermont didn't embrace Obamacare. You see, Obamacare didn't go far enough. Vermont instead choose to meet Obamacare's legal mandates on the states by implementing a single-payer system, planned for a 2017 start-up. The law -- is it even a law anymore? -- permits states to seek a waiver from Obamacare's other strictures if they propose their own plan which is at least as generous (that is, socialized) as Obamacare itslef.

It's gone about as well as you might expect.

Rep. Jim Condon [a "Blue Dog Democrat" who voted against the plan when it was proposed in 2011] told Vermont Watchdog it's time for Gov. Peter Shumlin to shelve the ambitious plan immediately.

"The deadlines for proposing financing have been missed two years in a row now, so to me that's very disappointing. It's becoming clearer and clearer that there is no financing plan," Condon told Vermont Watchdog.

As Vermont Watchdog reported, an independent report by the Washington, D.C.-based consulting firm Avalere Health concluded that the costs of Green Mountain Care would require Vermont to raise tax revenue roughly equal to the state's tax collections from all sources today.

And, um, it's costing a lot more money than originally claimed. Who knew?

Thanks to @johnekdahl.

Posted by: Ace at 10:04 AM | Comments (222)
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Even More Evidence Flight 370 Was Deliberately Diverted; Probe Now Officially a Criminal Investigation; Pilots Investigated
— Ace

The Malaysia PM now calls the disappearance "deliberate."

Malaysia's prime minister says the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 appears to be "deliberate."

Speaking to the press early Saturday, Prime Minister Najib Razak said the investigation has refocused onto the crew and passengers aboard the missing plane. He added that despite growing evidence to suggest a possible hijacking or sabotage, all possibilities are still being investigated.

..

Earlier, a Malaysian government official who is involved in the investigation said investigators have concluded that one of the pilots or someone else with flying experience hijacked the missing Malaysia Airlines jet.

...

The official said that hijacking was no longer a theory. "It is conclusive."

..

Sources told the Reuters news agency on Friday, meanwhile, that the path Flight 370 appears to have taken after diverting from its intended route strongly suggests that a trained pilot was still in control of the aircraft.

More clues keep coming in, some of them, of course, contradictory, as they usually have been in this case.

First, the plane was allegedly dropped to 5,000 feet. There is no reason to fly at such a low altitude -- it's difficult and it eats up fuel -- unless a skilled pilot intends to evade radar.

Second, despite earlier reports that the ACARS system was turned off before the cockpit issued its last communication with air control ("All right, good night"), there now appears to be considerable doubt about that.

Malaysian officials earlier said those words ["All right, good night"] came after one of the jetliner's data communications systems - the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System - had been switched off, sharpening suspicion that one or both of the pilots may have been involved in the plane's disappearance.

However, Ahmad said Monday that while the last data transmission from ACARS - which gives plane performance and maintenance information - came before that, it was still unclear at what point the system was switched off. That opened the possibility that both ACARS and the plane's transponders - which make the plane visible to civilian air traffic controllers - were severed later and at about the same time.

So the earlier report seemed based upon the last transmission from ACARS -- not actual evidence the system had been disabled at any particular time. Also, the way I read this, this seems to strongly undermine previous reports that ACARS and the transponder had been turned off at different times -- because it looks like the guess as to when ACARS was turned off only comes from when its last transmission occurred. Assuming that ACARS only pings a satellite intermittently (which must be true), the last transmission from ACARS gives very little clue at all as to when it was turned off. It can only tell you the last time it was definitely on.

A previous report had suggested that Flight 370 disappeared in a corridor of very little radar cover, in between Malaysia's radar system and Vietnam's, suggesting that whoever stole the plane chose the best possible time and place to disable the transponder. I don't know if that report still holds up; everything seems to be revised 24 hours later.

The Daily Mail now reports that it was not the captain but the copilot who said "All right, good night," but I'm not sure that really matters.

On the other hand, this seems worth looking into:

It has also been revealed that the pilot's wife and three children moved out of the family home the day before the plane went missing.

The report goes on to say that US investigators say that the pilot and co-pilot did not ask to be assigned to fly together, reducing the likelihood of a conspiracy between them.

The Daily Mail also claims that nine people in northern Malaysia claim to have seen either bright lights in the sky, or heard a jet engine, or both, the night of the disappearance.

Investigators told the New Straits Times that they were now convinced the aircraft flow low over Kelantan, which is in the north east - exactly the same area where the villagers and fishermen who saw bright lights in the sky on the night the jet vanished are living.

At least nine people - fishermen, farmers and villagers - have made reports to police about seeing lights in the sky and some said they heard the loud noise of an engine.
These accounts appear to match the conclusions of investigators who say the jet flew low after making a sharp turn and heading west from its course over the South China Sea.

The first report of a 'bright light descending at high speed' came from Alif Fathi Abdul Hadi, 29, who said he saw the light heading towards the South China Sea at 1.45am on the night the aircraft disappeared.

A lot has been written about the captain's ownership of a flight simulator. It wouldn't ordinarily seem very suspicious that a pilot owns a flight simulator, but in the current context, of course, every tiny fact is being examined.

The Daily Mail also says a steward aboard the flight owned a flight simulator as well.

That doesn't seem terribly unusual or important to me, but, again, everything is now being looked at.


Posted by: Ace at 08:00 AM | Comments (639)
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Top Headline Comments 3-17-14
— Gabriel Malor

Happy SnowPatrick's Day.

The Most Transparent Administration EverTM has won the distinction of -- more than ever -- censoring or outright denying access to files under the Freedom of Information Act.

Former White House press secretary Robert Gibbs had a moment of candor about the lack of candor from the White House on the possibility of losing the Senate: "I did the same thing a few years ago on your show and I still have tire tracks from Nancy Pelosi for saying what I thought."

Folks over at the Federalist noticed Obama's insane rambling about who is at fault for the high costs of the Unaffordable Care Act. Spoiler: it's Texas.

In foreign policy news, Crimea's parliament declared independence after the referendum at gunpoint. Formal recognition of the annexation of Crimea by Russia is expected to quickly follow.


AoSHQ Weekly Podcast: [rss.pngRSS] [itunes_modern.pngOn iTunes] [On Stitcher] [Download Latest Episode] [Ask The Blog]

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 02:49 AM | Comments (227)
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March 16, 2014

Overnight Open Thread (3-16-2014)
— Maetenloch

The Latest on Missing Flight MH370

So after examining all the data collected so far authorities are now fairly convinced that the plane was deliberately diverted due to human action. This is based on a couple of details:

  • The fact that the ACARS system was logged off (versus just being cut off) over 10 minutes before the transponder cut off (which happened right at an ATC handoff).
  • Military primary radar returns showing a plane heading west over Malaysia shortly later and making course adjustments and possible drastic altitude changes.
  • Satellite hand-shake pings going on for another 7+ hours

None of these are conclusive but the combination is extremely difficult to explain by any other scenario than a takeover by someone.

So based on the strength/timing of the last satellite ping, the satellite footprint, and remaining fuel authorities believe the plane went down somewhere near the two arcs shown below in red. People are referring to the two possible arcs as the Terrorism route (Northern arc) and the Suicide route (Southern arc).  [Note that the arcs represent the possible location of the plane at the last ping - not the flight path up to that point.]

The Northern arc is problematical due to the mountainous terrain and large amount of radar systems along all the national borders. So far no country in that area has reported any contacts that might match the plane's flight. And on the Southern arc there are very few radar installations except for Australia's JORN OTHR system which may not have been active during the flight.

PLANE-SEARCH151

More here:

Series of Errors by Malaysia Mounts, Complicating the Task of Finding Flight 370

The ongoing Prune.org thread

Map of the constrained area on the Southern arc

more...

Posted by: Maetenloch at 06:39 PM | Comments (596)
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Something Silly: Are You a Dog Person or a Cat Person? [Y-not]
— Open Blogger

That thread was getting a bit gamey, so how about an online "personality" quiz courtesy of the Christian Science Monitor?

FWIW, I got "You're sort of a cat person."


You are a bit of a dreamer, with wide-ranging interests, but with a tendency to misplace things and procrastinate. You don't mind being alone, and when you go to parties you usually end up having long conversations with just a few people. You tend to fret too much, but given a chance to reflect you are able to put things in perspective. (Or maybe we've got you completely wrong. This isn't really science, after all.)

And Open Thread.

Posted by: Open Blogger at 05:45 PM | Comments (269)
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??????
— JohnE.


I'm out of things to say.

Update: Wait, maybe I missed some sarcasm here or something.


Nope.

Posted by: JohnE. at 03:06 PM | Comments (642)
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Food Thread: Avocado Liberation Front (CBD)
— Open Blogger

We Politely Request That All Off-Topic or Political Comments Be Directed to the Thread Directly Below This One, Which Will Serve Officially as the Current "Active Conversation" Thread for All Discussions Not Related To This Topic.

skull179.jpg

Keep your damned thumbs off my avocados.

Many of you have done it. You poke through the huge pile of avocados, desperately looking for one that isn't baseball hard and several days from succulent, luscious, delightful guacamole. And you squeeze and prod and poke, ruining every single one you touch.

You know who you are.

Stop, and all will be forgiven.

Continue, and the wrath of the ALF will come down upon you. more...

Posted by: Open Blogger at 12:00 PM | Comments (252)
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March 16th Open Thread (below the Travel Thread) for Politics [Y-not]
— Open Blogger

Here's your Open Thread to discuss politics and news for those of you not interested in the travel thread.

To get you started, the latest news from Venezuela continues to be bad.

People who want food need to get marked and then stand in outrageously long lines:
more...

Posted by: Open Blogger at 09:40 AM | Comments (157)
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Sunday Travel Thread: Viva Las Vegas Edition [Y-not]
— Open Blogger

Greetings traveling morons!

TodayÂ’s thread is brought to you by Thin Elvis:

elvis-presley-03.jpg

Since I was in Vegas for a few days last week, I thought todayÂ’s Travel Thread should be about Spring Break locationsÂ… focusing on the Trashiest ones. In other words, the sorts of places young, hormone-driven ewoks might visit in order to learn the fine art of hobo hunting.

To get us started, this quiz, courtesy of How Stuff Works, will give you a chance to see just how much you know about Spring Break. (I got 15 out of 20, with a lot of guessing.)

I confess the entire concept of Spring Break (whose “season” has been underway for a few weeks nows) completely escaped my notice, both in college and in high school (seems like there’s a high school version, too, isn’t there?). Our family budget was pretty tight. We rarely took family vacations, so the idea of a vacation solely for us brat college kids was certainly not in the cards. My sister and I were usually working during school breaks, anyway.

But itÂ’s A Thing, apparently. And, a really Big Thing.

According to Mental Floss Spring Break got its start in Fort Lauderdale, much longer ago than I would have guessed:
more...

Posted by: Open Blogger at 09:43 AM | Comments (155)
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